The older I get, the more I start to see how everything moves in cycles. At the risk of sounding a little too woo-woo, there are phases of contraction and expansion, and we're definitely in an era of contraction right now. It's not just the layoffs, although that's huge part of it -- it's the overall feeling the one era has come to an end but the next hasn't quite started yet.
The internet of the last fifteen or so years is sputtering to a close. Twitter, or whatever they're calling it these days, is losing users and clout. The big D2C brands that defined an era and an aesthetic are losing steam -- sure, you can still buy a Casper mattress, but it's a mattress, not a lifestyle with ubiquitous subway ads. WeWork is bankrupt. Now that money isn't free, services like Uber and DoorDash have raised prices and stopped caring about customer service, and use has slowed.
But while all those things are fading, the next wave hasn't quite crested yet. Web3 and the metaverse is growing, especially among young users who are bailing on Web2 socials for platforms like Roblox, but that technology is nowhere near mass adoption. So we're left in an odd in-between place.
In many ways, it feels like the early 2000s -- not just because of the current global political situation, but because one bubble has burst and another has yet to fully inflate. The dot com crash, for some commentators, spelled the death of the internet, but all those businesses have come stronger than ever. Pets.com and Webvan were just too early, and had to stumble so that Chewy and Instacart could run.
As odd as it sounds, this might be the best time to build. Lots of smart people have been freed from their FAANG golden handcuffs and want to try something new. Interest rates will come back down at some point, and money will start flowing, and hopefully flowing in a more strategic and equitable way.
When we look back at this era, it'll be defined by it laid the groundwork for the next iteration of human connection and communication. Head-mounted devices and avatar driven platforms will be so common we'll wonder how we ever lived without them. The smartest thing folks can do is recognize this start making things happen now, lest they wind up behind the curve.